Leading Indicators

Philadelphia Neighborhood Changes - Part 1: Resident Populations

With the recent release of the five-year estimates of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2021 American Community Survey (ACS), we can now examine recent demographic and socioeconomic changes among Philadelphia’s neighborhoods – using our historic neighborhood mapping tool. This allows us to keep up to date with current and emerging trends across the city to better understand ongoing labor force and development patterns. We start this series by looking at neighborhood population changes from 2016 to 2021.

 

What You Need to Know  

  • The five-year estimates of the American Community Survey (ACS) are “period estimates,” or estimates reflecting five full years of data; we can compare the recent 2021 five-year estimates (i.e., 2017-2021) with the 2016 five-year estimates (i.e., 2012-2016). 

  • From 2016 to 2021, Philadelphia experienced roughly a 2.4% increase in its total population or roughly 37,000 more residents. 

  • Residential population changes were unevenly distributed across the city’s neighborhoods with 53% of the city’s 113 neighborhoods seeing an increase in their residential populations while roughly 41% saw decline. 

  • Of all of Philadelphia’s neighborhoods, Northern Liberties and Olde Kensington saw the largest percent increases in their residential populations between 2016 and 2021 at 36.6% and 34.9%, respectively. Lower-level estimates from the ACS should be interpreted with caution, but these increases translate to roughly 2,500 and 1,300 new residents, respectively. 

  • Most of North Philadelphia’s neighborhoods largely saw residential population increases between 2016 and 2021. Only a few scattered neighborhoods, like those bordering near Northeast Philadelphia, saw decline. 

  • West Kensington stands out in North Philadelphia for its 14.9% decline in its residential population between 2016 and 2021: a loss of roughly 1,600 residents. 

  • In Northwest Philadelphia, Germantown stands out for its 26.3% increase in its residential population between 2016 and 2021. 

  • Much of Northeast Philadelphia saw residential gains except for the Northeast Riverfront, Bridesburg, Lawncrest, and Rhawnhurst which all saw declines. 

  • Most neighborhoods of West and South Philadelphia saw residential declines between 2016 and 2021. 

  • West Philadelphia’s Spruce Hill neighborhood recorded the largest residential decline of any neighborhood in Philadelphia between 2016 and 2021 at 18.7%. This translates to a loss of roughly 1,400 residents. 

  • West Philadelphia’s Walnut Hill and Dunlap neighborhoods saw significant increases from 2016 to 2021 at 30.6% and 25.8%, respectively, translating to respective increases of roughly 1,600 and 1,100 residents. 

  • South Philadelphia’s Graduate Hospital neighborhood saw the largest residential increase at 15.7% or the addition of 2,100 residents. It was followed by Queen Village, Point Breeze, and Packer Park. 

  • The Stadium District saw the largest residential decline in South Philadelphia between 2016 and 2021 at 13.5% or a loss of roughly 600 residents. 

  • Overall, Southwest Philadelphia gained approximately 2,600 more residents between 2016 and 2021. 

  • Explanations behind neighborhood residential changes are multifaceted and complex. We will be exploring different socioeconomic and demographic trends as part of this ongoing series to help identify major contributing factors to these recent neighborhood population changes.

 

Neighborhood Population Growth and Decline  

Since the five-year estimates of the ACS are “period estimates,” or estimates reflecting five full years of data, we can compare the recent 2021 five-year estimates (i.e., 2017-2021) with the 2016 five-year estimates (i.e., 2012-2016). We start with total population changes per neighborhood in Figure 1. From 2016 to 2021, Philadelphia experienced roughly a 2.4% increase in its total population or roughly 37,000 more residents. These population changes were unevenly distributed across the city’s neighborhoods with 53% of the city’s 113 neighborhoods seeing an increase in their residential population while roughly 41% saw decline. As seen in Figure 1, most resident population increases occurred in and around Center City, across most of North and Northwest Philadelphia, within the far Northeast, in Southwest Philadelphia, and a few scattered areas of West and South Philadelphia. Areas of population decline largely occurred in West Philadelphia, much of South Philadelphia, and the bordering neighborhoods between North Philadelphia and near Northeast Philadelphia. 

 

FIGURE 1

SOURCE: The 2016 and 2021 five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and the Economy League’s Historic Philadelphia Neighborhood shapefile. 

 

Of all of Philadelphia’s neighborhoods, Northern Liberties and Olde Kensington saw the largest percent increases in their residential populations between 2016 and 2021 at 36.6% and 34.9%, respectively. These neighborhoods have been commonly identified as recent areas of past gentrification [1]. While lower-level population estimates from the ACS should be interpreted with caution (trends are more accurate than the raw estimates themselves), these increases translate to roughly 2,500 and 1,300 new residents, respectively. Many surrounding neighborhoods of lower North Philadelphia also saw slight increases to their residential populations (see Brewerytown, Fishtown, Spring Garden, etc.). Only those neighborhoods bordering lower Northeast Philadelphia (Port Richmond, Harrowgate, Hunting Park, and Juniata Park) along with West Kensington, East Kensington, Fairhill, Sharswood, and Strawberry Mansion saw residential declines. In fact, West Kensington stands out in lower North Philadelphia for its 14.9% decline in its residential population between 2016 and 2021: a loss of roughly 1,600 residents.

 

Minimal residential losses and gains occurred in upper North Philadelphia as well as Northwest Philadelphia. Germantown stands out for its residential gain of 26.3% in the five-year period. Unlike Northern Liberties and Olde Kensington, Germantown has seen only recent cases of gentrification (particularly, around Wayne Junction) [2]. It is followed closely by Wister, Franklinville, and Fern Rock at 20.8%, 20.7%, and 18.5%, respectively. Minor residential losses largely occurred along the border of near Northeast Philadelphia (e.g., Olney, Melrose Park, and East Oak Lane) and within Cedarbrook, West Mount Airy, Andorra, and Manayunk.

 

Much of Northeast Philadelphia saw residential gains except for the Northeast Riverfront, Bridesburg, Lawncrest, and Rhawnhurst which all saw declines. The Northeast Riverfront saw the greatest decline at 15.8% or a relative loss of 1,200 residents. The neighborhoods bordering the riverfront, however, saw some of the greatest residential gains within Northeast Philadelphia between 2016 and 2021. Holmesburg recorded a 25.9% increase in its residential population or roughly 3,600 more residents. It was followed by Wissinoming at 15.6%, Tacony at 14.1%, Parkwood Manor at 14.0%, Upper Holmesburg at 12.1%, Byberry/Normandy at 11.5%, and Pennypack/Winchester Park at 11.2%.

 

Neighborhoods of both West and South Philadelphia saw greater shares of residential decline than North, Northwest, Northeast, and Southwest Philadelphia. Many of these declines were modest, only ranging between 0% and 10%. Yet Spruce Hill, in West Philadelphia, recorded the largest residential decline of any neighborhood in Philadelphia at 18.7%. This translates to a loss of roughly 1,400 residents between 2016 and 2021. West Philadelphia’s Belmont neighborhood also saw a large residential decline at 12% while areas like University City, West Powelton, Southwest Schuylkill, Mill Creek, Spruce Hill/Cedar Park, Cobbs Creek, and Overbrook all saw minor declines. Walnut Hill and Dunlap saw significant increases over the five-year period at 30.6% and 25.8%, respectively; translating to increases of roughly 1,600 and 1,100 residents, respectively. These larger increases were followed by more modest residential increases in Mantua, Powelton Village, Carroll Park/West Parkside, Haddington, Wynnefield, and Wynnefield Heights.

 

South Philadelphia’s Stadium District saw the largest residential decrease between 2016 and 2021 at 13.5% or a loss of roughly 600 residents. Declines were also reported in Whitman, Lower Moyamensing, Girard Estates, Newbold, Pennsport, Passyunk Square, Hawthorne/Bella Vista, and Grays Ferry. Graduate Hospital saw the largest residential increase at 15.7% or the addition of 2,100 residents. Queen Village, Point Breeze, and Packer Park also gained residents during this period.

 

Southwest Philadelphia largely saw modest residential increases between 2016 and 2021. These increases tapered through neighborhoods based on their proximity to West Philadelphia, with Kingsessing reporting the largest increase at 4.5%, followed by Elmwood at 3.5%, and finally Eastwick at 2.7%. Overall, Southwest Philadelphia gained approximately 2,600 more residents between 2016 and 2021. 

 

Why the Changes? 

Neighborhoods are not static places; residential and development changes are constant. The explanations behind neighborhood residential changes are multifaceted and complex with each neighborhood’s individual socioeconomic context playing a unique role. While some neighborhoods may have seen residential gains in response to increased housing development, others may have seen gains from a displaced population looking for more affordable living conditions, while still others may have seen gains from a recent employer relocating to the area. Most neighborhood changes cannot be simply explained by one demographic or economic cause (e.g., gentrification). A variety of complex processes are at play and each neighborhood has its own set of social, economic, and political factors that influence how their respective residential populations are changing.

 

We will be unpacking many of these multifaceted neighborhood change explanations in this new Leading Indicator series to better understand the trends Philadelphia currently faces. We will dive deeper into housing and development patterns, residential changes by race and ethnicity, and various socioeconomic patterns.  

 

Have your own hypothesis behind Philadelphia’s recent neighborhood changes? Share your thoughts with us here.

 

 

Works Cited 

[1] Lubrano, Alfred and Jeff Gammage. 2019. “Study: Philly among leaders in gentrification, which has pushed out people of color.” The Philadelphia Inquirer, 20 March. Retrieved from: (https://www.inquirer.com/news/gentrification-philadelphia-african-american-latino-investment-neighborhood-20190320.html). 

 

[2] Moselle, Aaron. 2022. “Wayne Junction is quietly booming. Can it last?” Plan Philly, 3 February. Retrieved from: (https://whyy.org/articles/wayne-junction-is-quietly-booming-can-it-last/). 

 

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