Leading Indicators

Philadelphia Neighborhood Changes - Part 2: Race and Ethnicity

In our first brief of this series, we examined gains and losses in residential population across Philadelphia’s neighborhoods between 2016 and 2021. For the remainder of this series, we dive deeper into these residential changes and provide some possible explanations. We start by taking a closer look at how these residential changes diverge among different major racial and ethnic groups in the city.

What You Need to Know

While Philadelphia’s residential population grew by 37,000 people (2.4%) from 2016 to 2021, its demographic composition posted some notable changes. While residents who identify as Black and White still make up the largest proportions of the city’s population, both groups have shrunk since 2016, while the city’s Hispanic/Latino, Asian, and Multiracial populations have grown.
The proportion of Black and White Philadelphians declined between 2016 and 2021 by 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively. This proportional decline coincided with population declines of approximately 15,000 fewer Black Philadelphians and 11,000 fewer White Philadelphians during the same period.
Philadelphia’s Hispanic/Latino resident population proportionally grew by 1.6% between 2016 and 2021. This proportional increase mirrors the overall population increase of Hispanic/Latino Philadelphians by 31,000 between 2016 and 2021.
Philadelphia’s Asian residential population proportionally grew by 0.6% between 2016 and 2021 and added 11,000 more residents during the same period.
The city’s Multiracial population proportionally grew by 1.1% from 2016 and 2021, and this residential population added 19,000 more individual over the same period.
Recent population growth in Northeast Philadelphia seems to largely be fueled by incoming Hispanic/Latino, Asian, and Black residential populations while White populations seem to be moving out.
The 14.8% proportional increase of Hispanic/Latino residents in Northeast Philadelphia’s Holmesburg neighborhood coincided with an increase of just under 3,000 more Hispanic/Latino residents between 2016 and 2021. The neighborhood also recorded a 27.2% proportional decline of White residents during the same period which coincided with an estimated loss of 2,100 White residents.
Northeast Philadelphia’s Mayfair neighborhood saw the largest proportional gain of Asian residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood between 2016 and 2021, and a population increase of over 4,500 new Asian residents. It also recorded the second highest proportional decline of White residents in the city between 2016 and 2021, at 22.5%, as well as seeing a population decline of 6,000 White residents.
Northeast Philadelphia’s Byberry/Normandy neighborhood saw the largest proportional increase of Black residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood between 2016 and 2021, at 10.1%. This proportional increase coincided with a slight population increase of roughly 600 more Black residents in the neighborhood and the loss of approximately 300 White residents.
In North Philadelphia, Francisville’s modest total population growth of 6.2% between 2016 and 2021 seems to be largely driven by both an influx of White residents and the exodus of many Black and Hispanic/Latino residents. This North Philadelphia neighborhood saw an increase of roughly 1,200 more White residents between 2016 and 2021 and a loss of roughly 580 Black and 370 Hispanic/Latino residents during the same period.
At 14.4%, Old Kensington’s proportional gain of White residents coincided with an increase of roughly 1,300 more White residents between 2016 and 2021 but showed little displacement of other major racial and ethnic residential groups.
North Philadelphia’s Sharswood neighborhood recorded the largest proportional decrease of Black residents in the city at 33.5%; the neighborhood lost just over 1,000 Black residents, while its White residential population almost doubled during the same period to just over 800 individuals and the Hispanic/Latino population increased to roughly 600 individuals.
North Philadelphia’s Brewerytown neighborhood saw a 22.8% proportional decline of its Black residents from 2016 to 2021. Census estimates recorded a loss of roughly 1,500 Black residents in Brewerytown between 2016 and 2021, while adding over 1,700 White residents and 800 more Hispanic/Latino residents.
Northern Liberties recorded the largest total population increase between 2016 and 2021 at 36.3%. This neighborhood’s 2.3% proportional increase in White residents coincided with the gain of over 2,000 more White individuals between 2016 and 2021.
West Philadelphia’s Spruce Hill neighborhood posted the largest population loss in the city between 2016 and 2021 at 18.7%. Each major demographic group within the neighborhood recorded population losses in the five-year period, but the area has become proportionally whiter—by 4.9%—as a result of these losses.
University City has seen a decline in its proportion of White residents between 2016 and 2021, while seeing proportional gains among the other major racial and ethnic groups. The neighborhood’s White population declined by 10.2% between 2016 and 2021 and saw an overall loss of about 2,000 White residents.
The proportional gains of Asian residents within West Philadelphia’s Spruce Hill/Cedar Park neighborhood along with South Philadelphia’s Stadium District and Girard Estate neighborhoods all seem to coincide with overall slight population increases of Asian residents and the simultaneous population loss of White and Black residents.
South Philadelphia has gotten proportionally whiter between 2016 and 2021: Point Breeze saw an increase of roughly 2,400 White residents between 2016 and 2021, while losing more than 3,000 Black residents. Grays Ferry saw similar population shifts during this period with its increase of over 1,700 White residents and loss of over 2,600 Black residents.
Even though it saw an overall population decrease of 6.8%, Lower Moyamensing saw the greatest proportional increase of Hispanic/Latino residents in South Philadelphia between 2016 and 2021 at 10.4%. The number of Hispanic/Latino residents increased by over 2,100 residents while the majority White population decreased by over 2,300.
At 18.1%, Harrowgate saw the largest proportional gain of Hispanic/Latino residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood from 2016 to 2021. The Hispanic/Latino population in this neighborhood increased by over 1,500 residents during that period, while the neighborhood lost over 1,500 Black residents and almost 400 White residents.
Much of Lower Northwest Philadelphia—containing neighborhoods like Manayunk, Wissahickon, and Roxborough—have all seen proportional increases in their Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian residents while also witnessing a proportional decline in White residents. While White residents still make up over 70% of the total population for these neighborhoods, the trends show that the racial and ethnic diversity of these neighborhoods is slightly increasing.
East and West Mount Airy both saw proportional declines in their Black residency; while West Mount Airy saw a raw loss of over 650 Black residents, East Mount Airy’s Black resident population largely remained unchanged over the five-year period.
Melrose Park stands out for its 15.6% proportional increase in Hispanic/Latino residents, which coincided with an increase of just under 700 new Hispanic/Latino residents between 2016 and 2021, and a loss of roughly 650 Black residents.
East Oak Lane’s Asian population saw a 5.4% proportional loss and estimated decline of roughly 700 individuals.

A Slight Shift

As detailed in our first brief of this series, the City of Philadelphia saw a 2.4% increase in its total residential population between 2016 and 2021. This equates to an increase of roughly 37,000 more residents in the five-year period. Beneath this growth, the city’s racial and ethnic composition perceptibly shifted. Figure 1 compares proportional changes in Philadelphia’s residential population by race and ethnicity between 2016 and 2021.

FIGURE 1

SOURCE: The 2016 and 2021 five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

NOTE: Black, White, Asian, and Mutliracial residential groups do not include persons of Hispanic/Latino ethnicity.

Overall, the proportional breakdown of the city’s residential populations by race and ethnicity shows only slight changes in the five-year period. Black residents still make up the largest residential group of Philadelphia at 39.6% in 2021, followed by White residents at 33.8%. Both groups, however, have seen proportional declines since 2016 – at 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Proportional declines do not automatically equate to raw population declines (since proportions can shift just by increased representation among a single group). Yet, for Philadelphia’s Black and White populations, the proportional decline from 2016 to 2021 coincided with raw population declines. As of 2021, the city had roughly 15,000 less Black residents than it had in 2016 and approximately 11,000 less White residents.

At the same time, Philadelphia’s Hispanic/Latino resident population saw proportional growth between 2016 and 2021 at 1.6%. This demographic group also grew by more than 31,000 residents in the same five-year period. At 0.6%, the city’s Asian residential population also saw a proportional increase between 2016 and 2021 and a population increase of approximately 11,000 more residents. Finally, the city’s Multiracial resident population saw a 1.1% proportional increase and the addition of roughly 19,000 more residents between 2016 and 2021. Thus, Philadelphia’s demographics are slightly shifting away from the traditionally largest racial groups in favor of new ones.

At the Neighborhood-Level

While Figure 1 provides an overview of citywide proportional changes by race and ethnicity, we know that these residential changes were experienced differently across the city’s neighborhoods. Figure 2 compares the overall residential population changes, detailed in the first brief, with proportional differences in each neighborhood’s major racial and ethnic residential populations. These disaggregated shifts provide greater insight on the degree of residential changes across the city’s neighborhoods and their communities.

FIGURE 2

SOURCE: The 2016 and 2021 five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

NOTE: Black, White, and Asian residential groups do not include persons of Hispanic/Latino ethnicity. Proportional changes among Multiracial resident groups were too small for comparative visualization.

The most noticeable neighborhood proportional shifts occurred in Northeast Philadelphia. As we detailed in our first brief of this series, most neighborhoods in Northeast Philadelphia saw overall population growth between 2016 and 2021 – with only a few exceptions. When disaggregated by race and ethnicity, it seems that much of this growth is being fueled by increased proportions of Hispanic/Latino and Asian residents and proportional declines of the White residential population. Holmesburg, Mayfair, and Tacony all seem to exemplify these changes. Holmesburg saw a 14.8% proportional increase in Hispanic/Latino residents, and the area saw an increase of just under 3,000 more Hispanic/Latino residents between 2016 and 2021. Similarly, at 13.6%, Mayfair saw the largest proportional gain of Asian residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood between 2016 and 2021, and a population increase of over 4,500 new Asian residents. Mayfair’s proportional increases in Asian residents were followed closely by neighboring Tacony at 10.3%. At the same time, Holmesburg and Mayfair recorded the highest proportional declines of White residents in the city between 2016 and 2021, at 27.2% and 22.5%, respectively. These neighborhoods also witnessed respective population declines of 2,100 and 6,000 White residents during the same period. Additionally, Northeast Philadelphia’s Byberry/Normandy neighborhood saw the highest proportional increase of Black residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood between 2016 and 201, at 10.1%. This proportional increase mirrored the slight population increase of roughly 600 more Black residents in the neighborhood during that time while also showing how the neighborhood lost approximately 300 White residents. Thus, many of the recent total population gains made in Northeast Philadelphia are the result of incoming diverse populations, while much of the area’s historically White residential population seems to be leaving.

Lower North Philadelphia largely shows the opposite trend: the proportion of White residents has increased between 2016 and 2021 while most other racial and ethnic populations have seen significant proportional declines. Francisville saw the largest proportional gain in White residents during the five-year period at 26.2%. This coincided with an increase of roughly 1,200 more White residents. At the same time, the proportion of Black and Hispanic/Latino residents in Francisville declined by 16.4% and 10.0%, respectively, coinciding with the loss of roughly 580 Black and 370 Hispanic/Latino residents. Thus, Francisville’s modest total population growth of 6.2% between 2016 and 2021 seems to be largely driven by an influx of White residents while many Black and Hispanic/Latino residents are moving out.

Old Kensington witnessed a similar dynamic to Francisville but showed a different story. As detailed in our first brief, it recorded the second highest total population growth in the city between 2016 and 2021 at 34.9%. This was largely driven by incoming White residents with its proportional gain of 14.4% and an increase of roughly 1,300 more White residents between 2016 and 2021. The neighborhood also saw the largest proportional decline of Hispanic/Latino residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood between 2016 and 2021 at 13.5%, but only recorded a Hispanic/Latino resident loss of approximately 184 individuals. As mentioned above, a proportional loss does not equate to population loss. An incoming group could surpass the count of an existing residential group without necessarily displacing them. The proportion will show that the neighborhood’s racial and ethnic composition has shifted but the original residents may remain intact but newly outnumbered. Thus, using Old Kensington as an example, the incoming White population may just be adding to the neighborhood’s total population count without significantly displacing the incumbent population. This may be the result of new construction occurring on empty or abandoned land parcels; offering new space for incoming residents without pronounced displacement. Only time will tell if this trend can hold.

North Philadelphia’s Sharswood and Brewerytown neighborhoods recorded the largest proportional decreases of Black residents in the city at 33.5% and 22.8%, respectively. Sharswood saw an overall total population decline of roughly 1.9% between 2016 and 2021, but it seems that the area’s Black population represented most of this decline since the proportion of all other racial and ethnic groups increased between 2016 and 2021; census estimates recorded an approximate decline of just over 1,000 Black residents in Sharswood during this period. At the same time, Sharswood’s White residential population almost doubled during the same period to just over 800 individuals, while the area’s Hispanic/Latino population also increased to roughly 600 individuals. In fact, at 15.3%, Sharwood had one of the largest proportional increases of Hispanic/Latino residents in Philadelphia from 2016 to 2021. Brewerytown saw an overall total population increase, but this—once again—excluded Black residents who were the only major racial or ethnic group to see proportional decline. In fact, census estimates recorded a loss of roughly 1,500 Black residents in Brewerytown between 2016 and 2021, while adding over 1,700 White residents and 800 more Hispanic/Latino residents.

Northern Liberties recorded the largest total population increase between 2016 and 2021 at 36.3%. This well-known gentrified neighborhood continues to attract White and Asian residents. Its 2.3% proportional increase in White residents coincided with the gain of over 2,000 more White individuals between 2016 and 2021, while the 2.5% proportional increase in Asian residents coincided with a gain of under 400 new Asian residents. The proportion of Black residents declined by 6.0% and the area did see a loss of over 250 Black residents in the five-year period. However, the 0.2% proportional decline of Hispanic/Latino residents eclipses a gain of over 200 more Hispanic/Latino residents in the area between 2016 and 2021. This gain was overshadowed by the significantly higher increase in White residents.

West Philadelphia’s Spruce Hill neighborhood posted the largest total population loss between 2016 and 2021 at 18.7%. Indeed, each major demographic group recorded raw population losses in the five-year period ranging from 150 to 350 individuals, but the area has become proportionally whiter in the wake of these losses with a 4.9% proportional gain of White residents. Neighboring University City has seen a decline in its proportion of White residents between 2016 and 2021, while seeing proportional gains among the other major racial and ethnic groups. The neighborhood’s 10.2% proportional decline in its White population between 2016 and 2021 coincided with an overall loss of just under 2,000 White residents. While the other major racial and ethnic groups did see modest increases to their residential populations, the Hispanic/Latino residential population showed the greatest increase of just under 700 more residents.

Outside of Northeast Philadelphia, West Philadelphia’s Spruce Hill/Cedar Park neighborhood along with South Philadelphia’s Stadium District and Girard Estate neighborhoods all recorded some of the highest proportional gains of Asian residents in the city between 2016 and 2021. Each of these areas recorded total population losses between 2016 and 2021, with the Stadium District seeing a significant population loss of 13.5%. The proportional gains of Asian residents seem to coincide with overall slight population increases of Asian residents and the simultaneous population loss of White and Black residents (rarely exceeding a loss of 1,000 individuals). Hispanic/Latino population gains also seem to increase along with Asian residents in these areas but at much lower levels.

Like Lower North Philadelphia, much of South Philadelphia seems to have become proportionally whiter. Pennsport, Grays Ferry, and Point Breeze all recorded significant proportional gains in their White residents, ranging between 12% and 14%. In fact, Point Breeze saw an increase of roughly 2,400 more White residents between 2016 and 2021, while witnessing a loss of over 3,000 Black residents. Grays Ferry saw similar population shifts during this period with its increase of over 1,700 White residents and loss of over 2,600 Black residents. Hispanic/Latino residents seemed to gain slight proportional increases in residency in sections of South Philadelphia. Even though its overall population decreased by 6.8%, Lower Moyamensing saw the greatest proportional increase of Hispanic/Latino residents in South Philadelphia between 2016 and 2021 at 10.4%. The number of Hispanic/Latino residents increased by over 2,100 residents while the majority White population decreased by over 2,300.

Philadelphia’s Hispanic/Latino community seemed to have made significant population gains in North and West Philadelphia. At 18.1%, Harrowgate saw the largest proportional gain of Hispanic/Latino residents of any Philadelphia neighborhood from 2016 to 2021. The Hispanic/Latino population in this neighborhood increased by over 1,500 residents during that period, while the neighborhood lost over 1,500 Black residents and almost 400 White residents. Indeed, some of the proportional increases of Hispanic/Latino residents in North and West Philadelphia have coincided with proportional decreases in those neighborhoods’ Black residents. Since many of these areas also recorded overall population growth, it may be that these two populations are vying for cheaper housing opportunities in lower-income neighborhoods.

Northwest Philadelphia saw a bifurcated effect around Wissahickon Park. Much of Lower Northwest Philadelphia—containing neighborhoods like Manayunk, Wissahickon, and Roxborough—all saw proportional increases in their Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian residents between 2016 and 2021 while also witnessing a proportional decline in White residents. Many neighborhoods to the north of Wissahickon Park saw the opposite effect. Considering a large portion of these neighborhoods continue to be 70% or more White, these proportional shifts only constitute minor gains and losses. They do, however, show a trend for the increased diversification of Lower Northwest Philadelphia. North of Wissahickon Park, White residents seem to be increasing in East and West Mount Airy with their respective proportional gains in White residents of 3.9% and 3.7%. These proportional gains coincided with respective population increases of over 750 and 110 new White residents. Both neighborhoods saw proportional declines in Black residency; however, while West Mount Airy saw a loss of over 650 Black residents, East Mount Airy’s Black resident population largely remained unchanged over the five-year period.

Other areas of Upper Northwest Philadelphia largely saw proportional increases in their non-white populations. Germantown, East Germantown, Wister, Logan, Ogontz, and Fern Rock largely saw varyingly small proportional increases of their Black, Hispanic/Latino, or Asian residents while seeing slight proportional declines of White residents (though the White residential populations of these areas remain small). Nearby Melrose Park stands out for its 15.6% proportional increase in Hispanic/Latino residents, which coincided with an increase of just under 700 new Hispanic/Latino residents between 2016 and 2021, and a 5.7% proportional loss of Black residents. The neighborhood saw a loss of roughly 650 Black residents. Adjacent East Oak Lane’s Asian population also saw significant decline with its 5.4% proportional loss and estimated Asian population decline of roughly 700 individuals. Thus, much of Upper North Philadelphia is shifting in diversity.

Why the Proportional Shifts?

As we often note throughout our Leading Indicators, neighborhoods are not static places. Residential and built environment changes are constantly occurring. These disaggregated residential changes by race and ethnicity reflect both recent socioeconomic changes, legacy policy decisions, and churning market conditions. While multifaceted, isolating these trends better equips us with knowledge of which groups benefit from these changes and which groups are economically or socially disadvantaged by them. This is something we will work to uncover throughout the remainder of this series.

Have your own hypothesis behind Philadelphia’s recent neighborhood changes? Share your thoughts with us here.

Works Cited:

[1] Dorfman, Brandon. 2020. “In Northeast Philadelphia, changing demographics and diverse issues bring first-time voters to the polls.” Generocity, 4 November. Retrieved from: (https://generocity.org/philly/2020/11/04/in-northeast-philadelphia-changing-demographics-and-diverse-issues-bring-first-time-voters-to-the-polls/).

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